No Evidence…..


Free and fair elections?

From the Washington Post:

The Post’s Michelle Ye Hee Lee explains why White House press secretary Sean Spicer’s claims on Jan. 24 about voter fraud in the presidential election don’t add up.(Bastien Inzaurralde/The Washington Post)


Spicer cited repeatedly debunked research to support Trump’s claim that millions of people voted illegally during the 2016 presidential election. These studies do not support Trump’s Four-Pinocchio claims of “millions” of people voting illegally — as we’ve covered herehereherehere and here.

Spicer claimed Trump believes there was widespread voter fraud, based on studies that were presented to him. Then Spicer cited a Pew study that — as we notedbefore — does not support this claim. Moreover, Spicer conflated the Pew study with another study that — again — does not support this claim.

The primary author of the Pew report tweeted in response to Trump’s staff’s claim that he “can confirm that report made no findings re: voter fraud.”

When we debunked this claim on Nov. 29, 2016, we implored Trump’s staff members to please drop this talking point — as we are tired of telling them it is false. We can’t emphasize this point enough.


Debunked and telling lies is different from “no evidence that..”  A claim could be true, and a person could honestly, but mistakenly, claim a falsehood.

But of course, this is politics.

Moldbug, many years ago, noted the odd use of “no evidence that” or the null hypothesis:

For instance, they believe, an election should be treated as clean until proven dirty.  Is this one way to think?  It is one way to think.  Applying the same pre-Bayesian logic, we could treat it as dirty until proven clean.  Or we could forget about null hypotheses and try to come up with a reasonable prior.

It is of course the case that according to the Pew Center, not traditionally known as an outlet for Faux News, one out of every 8 US voter registrations – that would be about 34 million – is bogus.  Of course, it’s quite possible that Americans are so honest that 33,999,987 of these fake accounts have gone entirely unused.  Would Norman Rockwell vote twice?

This is what’s wonderful about the null hypothesis:

For the head of Libya’s national election commission, the method by which Americans vote is startling in that it depends so much on trust and the good faith of election officials and voters alike.

But that’s exactly what you do with a null hypothesis.  You trust it.  Until proven otherwise, of course.  But of course, since there is no evidence that election officials and voters are acting in bad faith, investigating any such unproven claims is itself in bad faith.  It’s probably racist, in fact.  (There is no evidence that “Bayesian” is just another word for “racist.”)

So, what should our “priors” be? Can we trust the Cathedral? Can we trust the Brahmins?

You decide:

To begin, please watch this video of Obama telling “illegals” or “undocumented migrants” it is ok to vote:

And read this from Steve Sailer:

And this:

The following links are what I have saved during the election:


In Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York there is scene in which recently arrived Irish immigrants are given bread and a voting card and asked to vote for “Boss” Tweed.

This is history folks:

And here:


See also the following academic article on the “Curly effect”, where politicians pursue policies that are not in line with “good governance” but are good for winning elections:

For empirical proof of the strategy used by progressives elsewhere see:

Clausewitz said that war is politics by other means; Mao said politics is war by other means; Trotsky said that “you might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you”; we say that you might not be interested in democracy, but democracy is always interested in you:

Wendy Hartling understands immigration; her mother is off-the-boat from Ireland; however, when it comes to criminal aliens, she sides with Trump.

Her daughter, Casey Chadwick, 25, was was murdered by Jean Jacques, an illegal Haitian immigrant.

Jaques stabbed Chadwick to death in her Norwich apartment, leaving her lifeless body in a closet. He was sentenced to the maximum of 60 years for her death.

According to the federal government, Jaques should have been deported long before Chadwick’s murder.

Federal authorities had tried deport Jacques three times, according to a report from the Office of the Inspector General, but Haiti officials wouldn’t take him back after he served 17 years behind bars for a 1997 attempted murder conviction.

Not an isolated incident:

As Trump correctly said: ” a country without borders is not a country.”

Democracy is dead.

Relevant further readings from Moldbug:


5 thoughts on “No Evidence…..

  1. Pingback: How Trump Won Part 9B: The Crocodile Circus | "The Horror! The Horror!"

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